By New Canaan Sentinel Staff
The New Canaan Board of Finance moved through a full agenda Tuesday night, receiving strong investment news, a sobering overview of projected school enrollment growth, and an October financial update that continues to trend positively. The wide-ranging meeting—held November 11 with a full board present—also marked the first public discussion of what may evolve into one of the town’s most consequential capital decisions in decades: how to manage anticipated pressure on elementary school capacity.
Pension Plan Delivers Strong Returns; Diversification Paying Off
Representatives from Russell Investments led off the meeting after the committee voted to approve minutes from October 14. Their review of the Funded Retirement Plan, OPEB Trust, and Myledred F. Marcely Memorial Scholarship Fund showed continued strong performance following asset-allocation changes adopted earlier this year.
Through September 30, 2025:
Pension Plan return (Q3, net): 5.23% vs. 5.33% benchmark
Since inception with Russell (annualized): 14.49%, slightly above benchmark
One-year return: 12.1%
The plan ended Q3 with $191.6 million, up from $183.6 million despite $1.6 million in net outflows.
Russell highlighted the benefits of diversification steps taken in May, including smaller allocations to emerging markets, global equities, REITs, and listed infrastructure. International equities—long laggards—are up 25.1% year-to-date, boosted by both local performance and a weakening U.S. dollar.
Board members questioned exposure to AI-driven mega-cap stocks such as Nvidia and Microsoft. Russell noted that the plan’s U.S. large-cap exposure is passive and now represents a smaller share of total assets than before the May reallocation.
Perhaps most notable: both the pension plan and OPEB trust are now among the healthiest in the state. The pension remains overfunded, and OPEB has reached 90% funded status, a striking improvement from the 60-70% range a decade ago. The board also recently reduced the discount rate to 6.625%, a conservative assumption that Russell said remains fully “justifiable and prudent.”
Superintendent Warns of Possible Elementary Enrollment Surge:
“We Need to Plan for Uncertainty”
Superintendent Dr. Bryan Luizzi delivered what Finance Chair Todd Lavieri called the first of many needed conversations about district facilities. His early briefing centered on a single question with far-reaching consequences: How should New Canaan respond if elementary enrollment rises sharply beginning next year?
The catalyst is a spike in 2021–2024 birth counts, which are substantially higher than any single year over the past decade. Births in 2021—whose cohort will enter kindergarten in fall 2026—jumped to 215, well above the previous high around 175.
Using the district’s traditional “birth-to-kindergarten ratio,” which has averaged roughly 1.98, demographers project up to 417 kindergarteners for the 2026–27 school year. This year’s kindergarten class was 288.
“That’s a number we’ve never seen before,” Luizzi said, while cautioning that the projection carries significant uncertainty. The district opened kindergarten registration early to get better real-time insight into trends.
Board members questioned whether pandemic-era migration patterns distort the usual birth-to-enrollment multiplier. Multiple members—some referencing real estate activity—suggested that many families who moved to town during COVID did so before having children, lowering the traditional in-migration effect.
Still, Luizzi emphasized the risk: “We are entering a period of uncertainty. If we’re wrong, the impact is manageable. If we ignore it and 417 kindergarteners walk through the door in August, we will not be prepared.”
All three elementary schools (East, South, West) operate at or near their effective limit of 28 sections. East School is currently at 30. Some specialized spaces—science rooms, music rooms, resource rooms—have already been converted to general classrooms.
West additionally houses the district’s five pre-K classrooms, tightening capacity.
The middle school and high school, by contrast, have room to flex due to their larger footprints and scheduling structures.
Four Emerging Scenarios
Luizzi outlined preliminary scenarios without cost estimates, which arrive next Monday with the new Facilities Condition Assessment:
1. Status Quo + Short-Term Relief
Add modular classrooms as needed
Continue to operate pre-K at West
Redistrict only if necessary to rebalance enrollment
Consider temporary off-site pre-K space (though none identified yet)
2. Expand and Renovate Existing Elementary Schools
Add classroom wings or capacity at South, East, and West
Move to a K–5 model (returning 5th grade to elementary)
Convert part of Saxe Lower Division into pre-K and district offices
Free 220 Elm for the alternative and LAUNCH programs
3. Build a Fourth Elementary School
Add a new K–5 school north of town (the only feasible area)
Renovate existing three schools
Reconfigure district to K–5 / 6–8 / 9–12
Ease busing and balance enrollment, but at the highest long-term cost
4. Scenario 1A / 2B Hybrids
Several board members suggested blending approaches—e.g. temporary staffing increases, modulars, or partial expansions—until enrollment trends clarify.
Finance members repeatedly emphasized the need for data-driven, incremental decision-making, particularly given the scale of potential capital spending, which some early estimates place between $150–$300 million over a decade.
“It has to be iterative,” Vice Chair Victor Alvarez said. “We can’t have a single fully baked plan dropped on us. We need to move step by step.”
The Board of Education is expected to review the full Facilities Condition Assessment on Monday, November 17, after which both boards will continue joint discussions into early 2026.
The Board of Finance is expected to resume discussion of school facility planning in February, once the Board of Education brings forward cost models and a recommended direction.
