By John Engel Sun Tzu said, “Know your audience,” and I’m writing for homeowners. My readers own their homes, sometimes several, and are expert at solving life’s problems. What real estate advice can I possibly offer? This is Part One: Winning. Next week is Part Two: Giving It to Your
By John Engel A graph of the last ten years of home sales in New Canaan shows 3,262 sales, 326 in a “normal” year, 4.38% of the roughly 7,434 housing units. By the standards of the last 50 years, 4.3% is the average turnover. In the last decade, the low
By John Engel Global Shocks, Local Spin Ray Dalio doesn’t forecast downturns; he forecasts breakdowns. “We’re not just heading for a recession,” he said. “We’re witnessing the slow unraveling of the old world order.” What he means: U.S. debt is unsustainable, trust in the dollar is eroding, internal conflict is
By John Engel What is a smart home? If “smart” means convenience, efficiency, security, and comfort, let’s start with something dumb: the closets, often overlooked. The smartest, most efficient closet I ever saw was Tommy Hilfiger’s in Greenwich back in 2009. I saw only a few white shirts. I thought,
By John Engel 60% of all sales are occurring above list price. Last month, I gave examples of 20 bidding wars where houses traded for 120% of their asking price. A good buyers’ agent provides value when asked what is a house worth, and what will it take to get
By John Engel 1. How has New Canaan’s inventory changed in February 2025 compared to 2024? New Canaan’s inventory fell from 68 homes in February 2024 to 50 in 2025, a 26.5% drop. Darien declined 21.4% to 22 homes, Westport fell 10.2% to 79, Wilton stayed flat at 34, Stamford
By John Engel Last week, I wrote about the resurgence of “pocket listings” — a practice that favors secrecy over transparency. Agents, like hostage negotiators and press secretaries, believe controlling the flow of information makes us better negotiators. However, lack of transparency leads to anxiety for both buyers and sellers
By John Engel In today’s Gospel, Jesus, sounding annoyed, says, “This is an evil generation, it seeks a sign.” It made me wonder what He would have said about this generation and about the New Canaan real estate market. In the month or so since Trump took office, in the
By John Engel A Room With a View is the 1908 novel by E.M. Forster and a 1985 Merchant & Ivory film starring Helena Bonham Carter and Julian Sands. The novel opens in Florence with Lucy and her chaperone, Charlotte, complaining about their rooms at the Pensione Bertolini. They were
By John Engel Times of crisis, of disruption or constructive change, are not only predictable, but desirable. They mean growth. Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. — Fyodor Dostoevsky I’ve been thinking about datamining a lot these days, what it means and how
By John Engel New Canaan is going through its annual budget review. There are two parts to the budget: operating and capital. The Selectmen have recommended a School budget of $114 million, up 4.6%, and a Town budget of $43 million, up 4.3%. The town council will cut that further.
By John Engel Last week the Dallas Mavericks traded their 25-year-old star, Luka Dončić, one of the two best players in basketball, to the Los Angeles Lakers for “not much” compared to previous blockbuster NBA trades. Instead of calling multiple teams and asking for their best offer, they called one
By John Engel The power of demographics to explain our economy and the housing market is often understated. It may be the single biggest influence on current home prices. To understand real estate, take the growth of motorcycle sales between 1960 and 1974: 1960: 575,000 registered in the U.S. 1965:
By John Engel “The Brutalist” is the hottest movie in the nation, with 10 Oscar nominations. It’s currently playing in New Canaan and has deep New Canaan roots. Why should New Canaan care and what does it mean that Brutalism is part of the conversation in 2025 (named by Zillow
By John Engel Inauguration Day is a moment for looking forward, and for reflecting on the past. This is a look-back over the bigger ideas in this column, reexamining some, correcting others, knowing some points were better made the first time around. What did we learn? 65. 2024 Review. Despite
By John Engel As the father of identical twins I get the question, “Are they different?” To me they are very different. To the casual observer not much. I feel that way about the end of year market report: Not much different from 2023. I find myself squinting hard to
By John Engel It snowed here this week, so I want to talk about the impact of snow (and reflected light) on real estate sales. Traditional wisdom is, wait for the snow to melt then launch the listing with beautiful spring photos. Let’s rethink that. The problem with this approach
By John Engel “I’m fascinated by the art of decision-making, especially when it comes to where to live, where to go to college, and where to send your kids to school.” —Luke Skurman, Niche founder. Real estate values correlate highly with school quality in this area. We spend a lot
By John Engel This week we explore timely Decision-Making and Commitment as we reflect on 2024 and set goals for 2025. December is when the phone rings. “What’s my house worth?” and “When should I list?” and “How can I prepare?” people ask. Sometimes the timing is not to our
By John Engel In the wake of the election the nation’s attention again turns to taxes. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2018 (TCJA) was the most significant tax change of the first Trump administration, profoundly affecting housing markets across the country. At the end of 2025 the TCJA
By John Engel We used the rolling 6-month average to strip away some of the month-to-month volatility. Nevertheless, there are many clues as to what the Spring market holds. Greenwich – WEAKER. Median price fell -1.4% year over year to $1.78 million, the lowest among wealthy peer towns. The inflection
By John Engel Last week we talked about the empirical effect of elections on real estate. We observed soft even years and stronger odd years. Elections represent inflection points before which we freeze with indecision and after which we exhale, and life goes on. Now that we know the results
By John Engel Times of crisis, of disruption or constructive change, are not only predictable, but desirable. They mean growth. Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. -Fyodor Dostoevsky I’ve been thinking about datamining a lot these days, what it means and how it
By John Engel Past performance is often used as a warning label to caution against assuming an investment will continue to perform well in the future: “past performance is not a guarantee of future success.” But this is election week, the correlations are strong, and you can take my predictions
By John Engel Zillow, inventor of the controversial Zestimate, has rolled out a new “climate risk threat score” for every house in the country. Zillow gets their data from First Street which has been crunching numbers on climate risk for a decade. Redfin offers a similar tool, but Zillow’s version
By John Engel I read with interest in Good Morning Wilton the story of an historical building owned by the town of Wilton which has fallen into disrepair and is now evacuated, requiring a multimillion-dollar renovation. This is not a problem unique to Wilton. New Canaan tasked Penny Young and
By John Engel The New Canaan Housing Authority (a non-profit corporation) is attempting to purchase Avalon New Canaan, 9.1 acres, 10 buildings, 104 units, currently with only 7 vacancies starting at $4,030 per month (for a 2-bedroom) Why the Housing Authority? The New Canaan Housing Authority (HANC) has statutory authority
By John Engel It is October and that means it’s time to paint a picture of the Fairfield County real estate market through 9 months. I’ll compare New Canaan with peers Darien and Westport and include large-market Stamford as a contrasting baseline. Median Sales Price – All Property Types –
By John Engel We are facing an existential threat in New Canaan. No, I’m not talking about the annual drumbeat of laws from Hartford which strip away local control of our zoning and of our schools. I am talking about shutting down the New Canaan Multiple Listing Service. The
By John Engel Today I am speaking on a panel on industry changes. I am noticing more pressure on buyer’s agents from a number of directions. Sellers are asking if they can eliminate or reduce offers of compensation, probing for a better deal. Buyers are approaching the listing agent directly.
By John Engel It is as if we began the Fall Season with a starter pistol on Labor Day. Buyers and sellers are feeling a newfound urgency to enter the market. Last week we listed an in-town renovated antique for $2.5 million. Over 30 groups made appointments last weekend and
By John Engel Homes for Sale. For the third month in a row the amount of inventory fell in New Canaan and continues to drop around Fairfield County. Darien and Wilton see single family home inventory consistently below 50 homes since late 2022 while New Canaan has been below 75
By John Engel We are at the long-awaited inflection point where the Fed reverses course and lowers rates. The stock and bond markets rallied this week on the news. A survey of big banks predicts 30-year rates between 6.5% and 6.7% in the fourth quarter. 15-year adjustables, already in the
By John Engel This week’s column is not really about showing a house. I am being both literal and metaphorical, relevant for those of you in another line of work. It’s about being purposeful in everything we do. I’ll begin with a story from the Army. Sergeant Cornelius had previously
By John Engel Pool construction is down 49% since peaking during the pandemic, 2021. And searches in Google for “swimming pool cost” is also down 40% since 2020, now at their lowest levels in a decade. Pool Corp estimates that the cost of a new pool nationally has risen 72%
By John Engel We looked at the stats for the first 6 months, comparing towns of similar size and wealth head to head in order to add some context. When we quote a number, it is a comparison with this time last year. These figures include houses, condos and co-ops.
By John Engel We can see in this chart that in Manhattan the discount on rents has been close to zero since the beginning of 2024, while across the East River in Brooklyn and northern Queens the discount has been negative for three years, at times quite extremely negative at
By John Engel This week we’ll discuss discount points and assumable loans as two creative ways to approach your next real estate purchase. Purchasing discount points becomes more popular during periods of higher interest rates. It’s a strategy everyone should consider in this “higher-for-longer” environment. According to Zillow, nearly half
By John Engel New Canaan – There are 73 single-family homes for sale, a -15% drop since last year. Last year we peaked in May with 86 and two years ago we peaked in June with 95, a steady decline. The median sold price was $2.02 million across May’s 18
By John Engel This is a lost art. I am referring to the property description field on the multiple listing service. The New Canaan MLS limits agents to 500 characters while the SmartMLS allows 1500. Letting agents say three times as much does not seem to be making much of
By John Engel As we approach the end of the Spring market this is the point of the year when we appear to have the most amount of inventory, the crest of the inventory sine wave. That is because everything that is coming on is on, and those properties that
By John Engel It’s beach season and Save the Sound has graded all 197 Connecticut beaches on water quality and 75% of them got a grade of A or B. Beaches at the entrance to Long Island Sound such as in Noank and Groton lead the list, but in this
By John Engel I want to revisit why the New Canaan housing market is so far out balance, favoring sellers, and why prices keep rising, and why this trajectory is destined to continue. New Canaan will continue to see rising prices for two reasons: low interest rate sensitivity and strong
By John Engel People ask, “How long does it take to write the real estate column?” All week. I have dozens of columns rattling around up there, but I sometimes struggle with what it is my audience wants. The easiest column to write is just a list of statistics. The
By John Engel Head-to Head Comparison Here’s a head-to-head comparison of the current real estate market conditions for Q1-2024 between Westchester County, NY, and Fairfield County, CT. Fairfield: Average Sales Price: $915,665, a slight decrease from the previous year Average Price Per Sq Ft: $422 Median Sales Price: $545,000, a
By John Engel Median Sales Price (Single Family) New Canaan: The median sales price stands at $2,161,000, showing a modest quarterly growth (+1.9%) and a year-over-year increase (+7.7%). Greenwich: Surpasses New Canaan with a median sales price of $3,000,000, indicating a more pronounced quarterly surge (+60.3%) and a significant year-over-year
By John Engel Closed Sales New Canaan had 32, up from 31 while Darien had 22 down from 32 a year ago. Wilton had 42 sales, up 55% from a year ago while Westport had 45, down -15% from 53 a year ago. New Canaan sales were flat despite lower
By John Engel Manhattan Market Report Manhattan first quarter sales fell, down 11.3% annually, now below two thousand (1,988), the lowest level in 3 years. Prices slid year-over-year, 17.4% below pre-pandemic levels. Inventory went lower due to the “lock-in-effect”. Mortgage-purchases dropped 26.7% annually. The percentage of cash sales has reached
By John Engel Many of us are wondering how long it will take until the pendulum swings. How long before the seller’s market becomes a buyer’s market? There are many factors at play, but the favorite term being bandied about on talk shows and cocktail parties is “Lock-in effect”. This
AS OF: MARCH 29th, 2024 Harkaway: A captivating retreat in the heart of Greenwich with a storied pedigree, this distinguished Georgian Colonial was home of the late Mary Tyler Moore. Following a meandering stream to Oakley Pond, the long, gated drive leads to the quietly secluded stone house on 7.37
By John Engel Douglas Elliman and Knight Frank have released the highly anticipated 2024 Wealth Report. These are the highlights: First, some definitions: HNWI is a high-net-worth individual, defined as $1 million or more. UHNWI is ultra-high-net-worth individual, defined as $30 million or more. Prime property is the top 5%
AS OF: MARCH 22nd, 2024 Elegant Estate Living in Tranquil Splendor. Welcome to this stunning retreat nestled on 1.94 acres of lush, manicured grounds. As you approach the grand entrance, you’ll be greeted by the stately main home, with 10-foot coffered ceilings, 9,656 square feet of living space spanning across
Elegant Estate Living in Tranquil Splendor. Welcome to this stunning retreat nestled on 1.94 acres of lush, manicured grounds. As you approach the grand entrance, you’ll be greeted by the stately main home, with 10-foot coffered ceilings, 9,656 square feet of living space spanning across 4 finished floors, chef’s kitchen
By John Engel This is the most important question Realtors answer, and busy agents are answering it every day. It is particularly relevant this month while 300 residents are arguing their values in front of the New Canaan Assessment Board of Appeals. This is a case-study on how I do
By John Engel We divided 15 markets into 4 groups 1. High-End 2. Cities 3. North of the Parkway and 4. Coastal Neighborhoods to see what comparative conclusions we might draw from their performance these last 3 years. Greenwich – UNDERPERFORMING. Median price is $1.75m, more or less flat since
By John Engel So many sad stories by homeowners who have lost bidding wars. I’m reprinting their stories and my advice: “These houses are definitely way over the price that they will be once appraised.” Last year houses were routinely selling for double their assessment and the sales were still
By John Engel On my Boroughs & Burbs podcast we did a show called “Uninsurable Florida”, episode #93. It’s fun to pick on Florida while they are having an insurance crisis. But we are all having an insurance crisis, so we did it again: episode #113 “The Changing Insurance Landscape”
“Do you mean to tell me, Katie Scarlett O’Hara, that Tara, that land, doesn’t mean anything to you? Why, land is the only thing in the world worth workin’ for, worth fightin’ for, worth dyin’ for, because it’s the only thing that lasts.” That quote from Gone With the Wind
New Listings. Westport wins with 47 new listings, an 88% rise. New Canaan had 16 new listings in January, a -24% drop from the previous January. This 20% decline in new listings was about typical among towns in our peer group. Darien is also lagging with only 13 new listings,
A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market that’s followed by a continuation of the downtrend. In other words, it’s a false optimism. Cats don’t bounce. I was wondering if that is what we are really experiencing in the housing market when we